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Stocks Climb, Treasuries Drop as Georgia Votes

Stocks rose and bonds dropped amid important elections in Georgia that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate for the next two years, setting the scope of President elect Joe Biden’s agenda.

In a time marked by slim trading volume, the S&P 500 rebounded after suffering its worst start to a year since 2016. Energy shares surged as oil traded near fifty dolars a barrel, even though the Russell 2000 Index of smaller businesses jumped 1.7 %. With markets factoring in an even greater chance of a Democratic sweep of Congress, some analysts see the possibility for heightened volatility. In anticipation to the outcome of the Georgia vote, which will likely be recognized on Wednesday, Treasury yields climbed — with a key curve measure reaching its steepest level in 4 years. The dollar slipped to the lowest since February 2018.

Whether or not Wall Street is actually becoming a lot more comfortable with the notion of Democrats taking control of both chambers of Congress, the scenario suggests the possibility of a considerably more generous stimulus package. Which could likely cause upward pressure on inflation as well as rates as well as higher taxes to spend on fiscal tool. Conversely, should possibly Republican incumbent win re election, the party will have enough votes to block any Biden initiative.

We do not view a Democrat Senate as a bearish game changer in the short-term because there would still be a great deal of positives in this sector, Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who created The Sevens Report newsletter, wrote in a note to clients. We’d look to purchase on any sort of material dip, but we should brace for more volatility going ahead if that is the end result at today’s election.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump failed once again to invalidate the election loss of his in Georgia and let the state’s Republican-led legislature to declare him the winner — the newest courtroom defeat of his in a quixotic attempt to remain in office despite losing the Nov. 3 vote.

Another information growth that caught investors attention was the new York Stock Exchange’s surprise choice to spare three major Chinese telecommunications companies from being delisted. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called NYSE Group Inc. President Stacey Cunningham to express the disapproval of his, according to 2 individuals familiar with the issue. Many U.S. officials said the move marks a momentary reprieve, not really an indication that tensions between Washington and Beijing are easing.

Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia surprised the oil market with a major reduction in its output for February as well as March, carrying a much better burden of OPEC cuts while some other producers hold steady or make small increases.

Things to view this week:

U.S. Congress meets counting electoral votes and declare the winner of the 2020 Presidential election Wednesday.
FOMC minutes out Wednesday.
U.S. unemployment report for December is actually due Friday.
These’re several of the key moves in markets:

Stocks
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.7 % as of 4 p.m. New York time.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2 %.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.1 %.

Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank 0.5 %.
The euro gained 0.4 % to $1.2291.
The Japanese yen appreciated 0.4 % to 102.74 a dollar.

Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose four basis points to 0.95 %.
Germany’s 10 year yield jumped three basis points to -0.58 %.
Britain’s 10 year yield climbed four basis points to 0.209 %.

Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude surged 4.9 % to $49.93 a barrel.
Gold rose 0.3 % to $1,948.17 an ounce.

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